While there is a clear anti-incumbency wave in Rajasthan and MP, the ABP News-CVoter pre-poll survey finds the ruling parties ahead in Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram.
India, November 4, 2023: The pre-poll survey conducted by ABP News and CVoter has brought to light the public sentiment in the five states heading for elections — Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Telangana. The results are surprising, and the most notable aspect was that a majority of the people in each of these states seem to be looking for a change, indicating a significant wave of anti-incumbency.
While the final verdict will only be known on December 3, the ABP News-CVoter opinion poll can give you a sense of which way the wind appears to be blowing.
Madhya Pradesh: A significant 55.4% respondents in Madhya Pradesh were found to be dissatisfied with Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s government. The Congress is pro to win 118-130 seats out of the 230, with a 44.3% vote share, while the BJP might secure 99-111 seats, reflecting a 42.1% vote share.
Rajasthan: CM Ashok Gehlot’s efforts to break the state’s historical pattern of alternating between BJP and Congress may encounter resistance. The opinion poll indicates that 49.2% of respondents are dissatisfied with his government, though a substantial 45.5% are not seeking change. Both BJP and Congress are projected to increase their vote shares since the last election. However, the BJP seems set for a pronounced victory, potentially securing 114-124 seats out of the total 200 with a 44.8% vote share. The Congress, meanwhile, is projected to win 67-77 seats with 41.7% of the votes.
Gehlot, however, is still the most favoured CM candidate, with 40.7% of respondents endorsing him. BJP’s Vasundhara Raje stands as the second preference, with 24.7% support, while Congress’s Sachin Pilot garners 10.5% of respondent support.
Chhattisgarh: The state presents a complex picture, with 48.5% of participants wanting a change, but 44.8% are satisfied with the current government under Bhupesh Baghel. The ruling Congress is projected to win 45-51 seats in the 90-seat assembly with a 44.8% vote share. The BJP trails with a projected 42.7% vote share and an estimated 36-42 seats. Baghel is favoured as CM by 45.8% of the voters, with his nearest rival being the BJP’s Raman Singh.
Telangana: The ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) is expected to get a 40.5% vote share, with Congress at a close 39.4%. Asked if they were satisfied with the state government’s performance, 57% of the respondents showed discontent with the KCR rule. Seat projections, however, place BRS slightly ahead with an estimated 49-61 seats, while the Congress is expected to secure 43-55 seats in the 119-seat House. KCR remains a popular choice for the Chief Minister post, with 37% voter support.
Mizoram: The Mizoram government under Chief Minister Zoramthanga is facing a similar anti-incumbency sentiment, with 50% of the survey respondents seeking new governance. However, his party MNF is likely to win 17-21 seats in the 40-seat assembly, outperforming the Congress that is projected to bag 6-10 seats. The MNF shows a vote share support of 34.7%, against the Congress’ 30.1%. ZPM’s Lalduhoma has emerged as the most favoured candidate for the CM post, with 32.4% of respondent support.
Methodology: This opinion poll is based on CVoter Pre Poll CATI (MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana) and Face to Face Interview (Mizoram) conducted among 63,516 people aged 18+ statewide, all confirmed voters.
Survey date: October 9 to November 3
Sample size – Rajasthan: 17534; MP: 28323; Chhattisgarh: 5782; Telangana: 9631; Mizoram: 2246
LS Seats Covered – Rajasthan: 25; MP: 29; Chhattisgarh: 11; Telangana: 17; Mizoram: 1
VS Seats Covered – Rajasthan: 200; MP: 230; Chhattisgarh: 90; Telangana: 119; Mizoram: 40
Margin Of Error (State Level) .+_/_- 3%
Margin Of Error (Regional Level): .+_/_- 5%
Confidence Level: 95%
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