As the world’s governments prepare to convene for another climate summit next month in Glasgow, the OPEC oil cartel reminds the globe that crude oil will remain the primary source of energy for decades, particularly as the world’s poorer countries pursue better growth and living standards.
According to OPEC, the increased use of electric vehicles and the push for alternative and renewable energy would definitely usher in an age of diminishing oil demand in developed countries.
However, the energy requirements of developing economies in other regions of the world will keep oil as the world’s top energy source through 2045, OPEC said Tuesday in its annual World Oil Outlook.
“What is obvious from this year’s WOO is that energy and oil demand increased strongly in 2021, following a precipitous decline in 2020, and continuing growth is projected over the longer term,” the report stated.
Global primary energy consumption is predicted to increase by 28% between 2020 and 2045, across all energy sources, as a result of the global economy expected to double in size and the addition of around 1.7 billion people by 2045.
Only coal will see a decline in use, while other energy sources will see an increase in demand, while the share of renewables, nuclear, and natural gas will increase, according to the group.
The 340-page report envisions a future in which demand for oil declines in wealthier countries that are members of the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation’s 38 member countries, as efforts to combat climate change take hold through the use of renewables and alternative fuels in automobiles, aeroplanes, and ships.
It projects that the global vehicle fleet will rise from 1.1 billion to 2.6 billion cars by 2045, with 500 million of those vehicles being electric, or 20% of all vehicles.
However, the report by OPEC’s secretariat in Vienna stated that growing populations and expanding middle classes in the rest of the world, including China and India, will result in increased demand for oil between 2020 and 2045, although the majority of that increase will occur in the earlier part of that period.
By 2045, oil will meet 28.1% of the world’s energy needs, down from 30% in 2020, but ahead of natural gas (24.4%) and coal (17.4%). The remainder is made up of hydroelectric, nuclear, and biomass energy sources, as well as other renewables such as wind and solar.
Demography was highlighted as a major explanation for the developed world’s decreased energy use: diminishing and ageing populations result in slower economic growth.
The research observed that increased awareness of the critical need to expedite climate action has led in new policy ambitions to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
The European Union, the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Brazil have all suggested new goals and roadmaps to achieve them.
OPEC, on the other hand, expressed grave reservations about the feasibility of meeting all of these ambitious climate-mitigation obligations within the projected period.
For instance, the European Union unveiled its Fit for 55 package in July, in which the 27-country bloc committed to cutting emissions by 55% below 1990 levels by 2030.
OPEC stated that for the time being, the plan remains a plan that must be negotiated and agreed upon by all EU Member States, leaving considerable room for exceptions and watering-down.
The United Kingdom will host the 26th United Nations climate change conference in Glasgow, Scotland, from October 31 to November 12. National leaders will discuss measures to cut greenhouse gas emissions and limit global temperature rise.
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